climate.sorkinlabs

Los Angeles heat waves haven't gotten hotter at their peak. Their nights have.

Line up every heat wave a long-record LA-area station has recorded — six of them have records reaching back to the 1940s or 50s. The hottest afternoon of each one lands about where it always did: −0.3° across 6 stations, 1951–1980 to 1996–2025. The coolest night inside each one is +3.7° warmer and the night after it ends +3.0° warmer — and a heat-wave night that once gave 7.3 hours under 70°F now gives 5.3. The events themselves aren't obviously longer or more frequent. When one happens, the night behaves differently.

These are observed changes at individual weather stations. They include regional climate change, urbanization and changes around each station; this site does not attempt to attribute the causes. Every chart is one thermometer at one place, as NOAA published it.

Then → now, 6 stations
1951–1980 → the last 30 complete summers, averaged over the stations, with 95% intervals on the change
Hottest afternoon
−0.3°
95.3° 94.9°
95%: −1.3° to +0.5°
Coolest heat-wave night
+3.7°
59.6° 63.3°
95%: +2.0° to +5.3°
Night after it ends
+3.0°
60.4° 63.4°
95%: +1.3° to +4.7°
Overnight relief (hours under 70°F)
−2.0 h
7.3 5.3 h
95%: −2.6 h to −1.3 h
Days per heat wave
−0.2 d
4.4 4.3 d
95%: −0.6 d to +0.3 d
Intervals resample whole summers within each station, then stations. Gray: interval includes zero.

What counts as a heat wave here

There is no single temperature that means "heat wave" in Los Angeles: 80°F is a hot day at LAX and an ordinary one in Burbank. So the extreme is defined relative to each place's own climate.

Here, a heat wave is at least three consecutive days among the hottest 10% of warm-season afternoons at that station (May–October, over its whole record) — a station-relative extreme-heat event.

That makes it 80°F at LAX and 95°F in Burbank. Nothing else is tuned — no humidity, no minimum night temperature, no adjustment for the season. What happens at night falls out of the data, not the definition. A day counts only when the hourly record covers it; a missing day breaks a run (how).

That identifies roughly 3.6 heat waves a summer at a typical station, covering about 16 days. (The threshold is the warmest 10% of May–October, so a station sees only about 18 threshold-crossing days a summer to begin with; requiring 3 in a row makes qualifying runs rarer still.) Stricter definitions change how many events qualify — 1.5 a summer at the 95th percentile, 0.5 a summer at the 98th — but not the central result: daytime peaks have changed little, while heat-wave nights are several degrees warmer (the table).

The threshold at each station
70°75°80°85°90°95°100°105°110°Point Mugu76°Oxnard Airport78°LAX80°Santa Monica Airport80°Camarillo Airport82°Hawthorne Airport84°John Wayne Airport85°Long Beach Airport88°Downtown LA (USC)89°Fullerton Airport92°Burbank Airport95°Van Nuys Airport98°March Air Reserve Base99°Ontario Airport99°Riverside Airport99°San Bernardino Airport100°Victorville100°Chino Airport100°Palmdale Airport102°
The hottest 10% of each station’s May–October afternoons, over its complete summers.

Every heat wave at six long-record LA-area stations

One line per heat wave, from its coolest night up to its hottest afternoon. Short bars mark the averages of both ends for 1951–1980 and the last 30 complete summers. Stations where the nights moved most relative to the afternoons come first; hollow dots are waves in a summer that is not yet complete.

Oxnard Airport ≥ 78°F · 46 summers

40°50°60°70°80°90°100°110°1960198020002020
88° → 87° (−0.3°) · 52° → 58° (+6.6°) · 217 waves

Camarillo Airport ≥ 82°F · 45 summers

40°50°60°70°80°90°100°110°1960198020002020
92° → 91° (−0.4°) · 54° → 58° (+4.5°) · 194 waves

Long Beach Airport ≥ 88°F · 74 summers

10°20°30°40°50°60°70°80°90°100°110°19401960198020002020
97° → 96° (−0.6°) · 62° → 65° (+3.2°) · 234 waves

Burbank Airport ≥ 95°F · 80 summers

50°60°70°80°90°100°110°120°1960198020002020
102° → 102° (+0.3°) · 65° → 69° (+4.0°) · 218 waves

LAX ≥ 80°F · 86 summers

40°50°60°70°80°90°100°110°19401960198020002020
90° → 89° (−0.9°) · 62° → 65° (+2.7°) · 326 waves

March Air Reserve Base ≥ 99°F · 82 summers

50°60°70°80°90°100°110°120°19401960198020002020
104° → 104° (−0.1°) · 63° → 64° (+1.1°) · 241 waves

Then vs now: three temperatures from every heat wave

For each of the 6 stations with a record in both windows: the average hottest afternoon of a heat wave, the average coolest heat-wave night (the lowest overnight temperature from the second night on — did the outdoor air ever substantially cool overnight?), and the night after the run broke. 1951–1980 against the last 30 complete summers.

Hottest afternoon of the wave −0.3° pooled change, 95%: −1.3° to +0.5°
Coolest heat-wave night +3.7° pooled change, 95%: +2.0° to +5.3°
Night after it ends +3.0° pooled change, 95%: +1.3° to +4.7°
45°55°65°75°85°95°105°night aftercoolest nightafternoonOxnard Airport+5.0°+6.6°−0.3°LAX+1.3°+2.7°−0.9°Camarillo Airport+5.0°+4.5°−0.4°Long Beach Airport+2.5°+3.2°−0.6°Burbank Airport+3.2°+4.0°+0.3°March Air Reserve Base+1.0°+1.1°−0.1°
Hollow: 1951–1980. Filled: the last 30 complete summers. Whisker: 95% interval of the change, from resampling whole summers. Gray change = interval includes zero.

95% intervals bootstrap entire summers, so several heat waves in one year aren't treated as independent observations; the pooled numbers resample stations as well (how).

Heat waves themselves aren't obviously longer or more frequent under this definition: 4.4 → 4.3 days per event (95%: −0.6 to 0.3) and 3.78 → 3.65 per summer (−2.25 to 1.40). The story is not that there are more of them; it is that when one happens, the night behaves differently. Year-by-year counts are in the explorer.

Overnight relief: hours under 70°F on a heat-wave night

A daily low of 69°F and one of 60°F both count as "under 70," but they are very different nights. The hourly readings can tell them apart: of the 14 hours between 6 pm and 8 am, how many were under 70°F? That number is closely tied to whether windows can be opened, whether a building sheds the day's heat, whether people sleep.

0 h2 h4 h6 h8 h10 h12 h14 hAverage of 6 stations7.3 h under 70°1951–19805.3 h under 70° (−2.0 h, 95%: −2.6 to −1.3)1996–2025

Station by station:

0 h2 h4 h6 h8 h10 h12 h14 hOxnard Airport11.8 h under 70°1953–19699.8 h under 70°1998–2025LAX7.5 h under 70°1951–19804.9 h under 70°1996–2025Camarillo Airport10.7 h under 70°1953–19698.5 h under 70°1999–2025Long Beach Airport6.6 h under 70°1951–19804.5 h under 70°1997–2025Burbank Airport3.2 h under 70°1951–19801.3 h under 70°1996–2025March Air Reserve Base4.1 h under 70°1951–19803.0 h under 70°1997–2025

Share of 6 pm–8 am readings under 70°F, scaled to 14 hours so hourly and 3-hourly years compare; nights from the second night of the wave on.

The pattern isn't universal: March Air Reserve Base is the exception

March Air Reserve Base: the coolest heat-wave night moved +1.1° (−0.7° to +2.9°), and its ordinary summer nights moved +0.9°. At March, inland and away from the marine layer, heat-wave nights have changed by only about a degree — and so have ordinary summer nights. That is a real difference between places, not noise in the headline: this is a regional pattern with heterogeneous stations, not every thermometer proving one headline.

Does the definition matter? The same then-vs-now changes under other definitions

Pooled over the 6 comparable stations (plain means; the front-page rows carry intervals). There is no single canonical heat-wave definition — the ETCCDI warm-spell index is stricter still (6+ days above a calendar-day 90th percentile) — so the page states its operational one and shows the alternatives. The last row keeps the page's definition but expresses each heat-wave night as a departure from the normal low for its calendar date, so a shift in when heat waves occur cannot masquerade as warmer nights — modern heat waves start on average 6 days earlier than in the baseline.

DefinitionEvents / station / summerHottest afternoonCoolest heat-wave nightDays per eventStations
2+ days, 95th percentile3.4 → 3.5−0.3°+2.8°−0.16
3+ days, 90th percentile (this page)3.8 → 3.6−0.3°+3.7°−0.16
3+ days, 95th percentile1.8 → 1.5−0.2°+3.5°0.06
3+ days, 98th percentile0.6 → 0.5+0.0°+3.5°−0.16
3+ days, calendar-day 90th percentile3.2 → 2.9−0.2°+3.9°−0.26
Page definition — nights adjusted for their calendar date−0.4°+3.6° (+1.9° to +5.5°)6

Stations without a 1951–1980 baseline

13 more stations have heat-wave records but too few mid-century summers to compare then with now. Their waves, same chart: Point Mugu, 59 complete summers.

30°40°50°60°70°80°90°100°110°19501960197019801990200020102020
317 heat waves over 59 complete summers, 1947–2025. Threshold: 76°F. Hover a wave.

Explore it yourself

  • The explorer — every year as a ring at every station, the animated map, warm nights and hot days by year, frost, the LA-wide modeled index, and heat waves per summer year by year.
  • LA stations — all 22 stations as a table; each station page has its full record, hour by hour.
  • The whole country — the same hourly records for 1,971 US stations.
  • Methods — definitions, completeness rules, the bootstrap, what the charts can and can't say. Everything is open source: github.com/ssorkin/climate.
Vocabulary. A warm night is a night whose low never fell below 70°F. A heat-wave night is any night inside a defined heat wave. The coolest heat-wave night is the lowest overnight low from the second night of the wave on. Overnight relief is hours under 70°F between 6 pm and 8 am. Hourly readings miss a thermometer's true peak by about half a degree — consistently, in every decade — which is one more reason not to lean on the "hotter" question. "Then" is 1951–1980; "now" is each station's last 30 complete warm seasons. 6 stations have 15+ complete summers in both windows and are the ones compared; 13 more have heat-wave records but no mid-century baseline.

Every number on this site is computed from NOAA's public hourly station records by an open-source pipeline. Charts show what one thermometer recorded at one place — not a regional average. See Methods for what is and isn't included.